Projecting how likely Seahawks are to keep key free agents

Now that the Seahawks have their preemptive free-agency strike by agreeing on a new deal with Ahtyba Rubin, the NFL’s open market can begin.

Seattle went from 17 to 16 players who will become unrestricted free agents Wednesday at 1 p.m. Pacific Time after they agreed Monday night on a three-year contract with its run-stuffing defensive tackle.

Monday was the first day Rubin’s agent and those of the other 16 free agents could officially negotiate with other teams (though talks have been going on “unoffically” for weeks). They have been the focus of general manager John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll even before the team’s season-ending playoff loss at Carolina Jan. 17.

Earlier Monday I had written the Seahawks had a better-than-even chance of re-signing Rubin, who was a key to their run defense. He is 29 and came $2.9 million more cheaply than fellow defensive tackle Brandon Mebane did last season. The Seahawks paid him $2.6 million after he had an injury-shortened 2014 for Cleveland – and then he became the Seahawks’ perfect-fit “three-technique” tackle off the shoulder of the opposing guard. He and Mebane were the foundation of the league’s No. 1 rush defense.

Seattle would love to be able to keep both, and needed to keep one to retain an anchor to its run stuffing. Rubin is coming back more cheaply than the more renowned, accomplished Mebane will be able to.

The Seahawks are an estimated $15 million or so under their 2016 salary cap, counting Marshawn Lynch’s retirement that will save them $6.5 million against the cap. That estimate includes Seattle’s new, three-year agreement with defensive tackle Ahytba Rubin, which Fox Sports’ Mike Garafolo reported Tuesday is worth $4 million per year. Rubin’s deal reportedly includes a $4.5 million signing bonus and is counting $3 million against this year’s cap ($1 million base salary in ‘16 with a $1.5 million proration on the signing bonus and a roster bonus of $500,000). It keeps the key stopper on the league’s No. 1 run defense last season from free agency.

Here are its most prominent free agents, in order of my projected likelihood the Seahawks will re-sign each:

Linebacker Bruce Irvin: The dominance Denver’s Von Miller had on the AFC championship game and then Super Bowl 50 last month highlighted how pass rushing has become second only to quality quarterback play as the NFL’s most-sought-after skill. Though Irvin’s career high of eight sacks came in his rookie season four years ago and he went from 6 1/2 sacks in 2014 to 5 1/2 sacks last season, some of that is because he’s become an every-down player who was Seattle’s rush end in passing situations. The Seahawks spent their first pick last spring on Michigan rush end Frank Clark with an eye on Irvin potentially leaving this spring. Then they declined to exercise Irvin’s contract option that would have given him $7.8 million for 2016. And now Arizona is the latest to join Atlanta and Jacksonville (with former Seattle defensive coordinators as head coaches) in reportedly making a pitch to sign Irvin for perhaps $8-$9 million per year.

Though he was in Seahawks headquarters last week working and hanging out with Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner and others ...

...it’s become obvious the market for Irvin will be too expensive for the Seahawks given their needs to spend at defensive tackle and on the offensive line.

Chance Seattle keeps: 20%

Wide receiver Jermaine Kearse: We’ve discussed here a couple times in recent weeks how Seattle’s No. 3 WR and clutch performer the last three postseasons is going to shop to see what his best offers will be in free agency. They are likely to be perhaps $4 million per year -- the salary the Seahawks are scheduled to pay No. 1 wide out Doug Baldwin, and he just set the franchise record and co-led the NFL in touchdown catches. That’s probably too expensive for the Lakewood native to stay with his hometown team. And Tyler Lockett’s role is about to get bigger and his second league season.

Chance Seattle keeps: 30%

Left tackle Russell Okung: Seahawks general manager John Schneider and coach Pete Carroll are trying to bank, literally, on their relationship with the man they made their first draft choice for Seattle in 2010 at No. 6 overall. They have been negotiating with Okung -- and with Okung only; he is representing himself in contract talks, deciding to not hire an agent. Left tackle, protector of the right-handed quarterback’s blind side, is an expensive position for free agency and Okung is one of the most accomplished ones on the market, even while recovering from shoulder surgery already this offseason. Okung knows every veteran in the league is seeing how large a contract he can get on his own, and he’s stated he sees a higher calling of “liberty, discipline and fortitude” in representing himself in free agency. With all eyes on him, he is unlikely to settle for what would likely be below-market value to stay with Seattle.

Chance Seattle keeps: 30%

Defensive tackle Brandon Mebane: He turned 31 in January and came off a torn hamstring to excel as the run-stopping partner next to Rubin on the inside of the Seahawks’ defensive line. His salary was $5.5 million in 2015. The Seahawks are talking to his agent in an effort to bring back their key nose tackle and central piece to its standout run defense -- but not for anywhere near $5.5 million per year and not for many years beyond maybe 2016. If he can get an offer for more years elsewhere it would likely come with a higher signing bonus than Seattle may be willing to offer. We may see if money or familiarity wins here.

Chance Seattle keeps: 40%

Guard J.R. Sweezy: Rumors, likely from agents, say the Seahawks’ homegrown former college defensive tackle is gaining attention and thus cost in this free-agent market. Seemingly every team that issues helmets is suddenly enamored with him:

But assuming he’s getting priced out of Seattle is looking at Sweezy in a vacuum.

If the team loses Okung in free agency, that will leave more money and effort to spend on Sweezy so the Seahawks don’t lose 40 percent of their already iffy offensive line in a matter of days. Veteran line coach Tom Cable is proudest of Sweezy for improving so dramatically after his infamous NFL debut at guard when the Cardinals ran through him in the 2012 opener. Cable converted him from defensive line, and the experiment worked. It produced a nasty, at-times dominant run blocker who remains inconsistent in pass protection. Cable has a ton of sway on which blockers Seattle signs, lets go and develops. He’s invested too much personally in Sweezy to let him leave without a big fight.

Chance Seattle keeps: 60%

Cornerback, nickel back Jeremy Lane: The Seahawks learned the hard way over the first half of last season that replacing a departed free-agent cornerback by signing another free agent doesn’t always fit their specific teachings and skills of their vaunted defensive secondary. Lane is another homegrown Seahawk who knows the step-kick technique better than Williams ever could even grasp before Seattle cut its brief starter and free-agent signee this time last year in the middle of the 2015 season. Lane’s ability to start at cornerback and slide over to nickel as the fifth DB on passing downs is valuable more to Seattle than it would be to any other team. Plus, the Seahawks may be about to experience the lone positive to Lane breaking his arm and tearing knee ligaments in Super Bowl 49 and missing the first half of last season recovering; that may temper the market for him now.

Chance Seattle keeps: 70%

Punter Jon Ryan: The 34-year old earned $1.5 million last season -- and a raise for what he’s done with the six-year contract he just finished for the Seahawks. He has often flipped field position with booming punts in key times; Carroll constantly calls him an underrated member of the defense for giving it such advantageous positions to start drives. Sure, the Seahawks could get a punter elsewhere and save money doing it. But with Ryan it would be a sharp case of not fully realizing what it had until he’d be gone, and it wouldn’t be a huge cap dent to retain him.

Chance Seattle keeps: 75%

Reserves who are unrestricted free agents: QB Tarvaris Jackson, LB Mike Morgan, RB Fred Jackson, FB Will Tukuafu, TE Chase Coffman, DL Demarcus Dobbs, C Lemuel Jeanpierre, TE Anthony McCoy, RB Bryce Brown.

When I asked Carroll two weeks ago at the combine in Indianapolis if he’d like to stay with the veteran-backup-quarterback approach behind Russell Wilson, the coach said yes and remarked how well that’s worked for the Seahawks. He and Tukuafu, who plays fullback, tight end and defensive lineman, are the most likely among this group to return, even if on one-year deals.

This story was originally published March 7, 2016 at 4:58 PM with the headline "Projecting how likely Seahawks are to keep key free agents."