John McGrath: Avoid snap judgments about those taking the snaps

The NFL season was only a few hours old last week when the story line of the year took shape.

Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston, the 2013 Heisman Trophy winner from Florida State and first overall selection of the 2015 draft, would prove to be the kind of bust who costs front office executives their jobs.

Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota, the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner from Oregon and second overall selection of the 2015 draft, would prove to be the kind of wunderkind who requires all of one half to show he’s bound for glory.

So startling was the contrast between these rookie quarterbacks making their debuts, it had some expert pundits comparing last spring’s draft to 1998, when Tennessee’s Peyton Manning and Washington State’s Ryan Leaf were considered equals worthy of a photo finish for the No. 1 pick. (It turned out to be Manning, but only because Leaf groused about a future spent in Indianapolis.)

An updated version of the dueling hot-shots scenario found the role of Leaf going to Winston, whose first pass resulted in a touchdown ... for the other team. Winston ended up throwing two interceptions and taking four sacks during a 42-14 defeat to the Titans.

Mariota, meanwhile, went 13 of 16 for 209 yards on the same field, blistering the Bucs’ “Cover-Who?” defense with four touchdown passes before halftime. He finished with a perfect passer rating of 158.3.

(Which makes me wonder what his passer rating might have looked like had he gone 16 for 16, but I’d rather ponder complex IRS tax codes than figure out the NFL’s formula for passer ratings.)

For his season-opening effort, Mariota earned AFC offensive player of the week honors. Authoring a best-selling autobiography appeared to be on his bucket list, along with putting together a rough draft for his induction speech at the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Ah, but as the public-address announcer often implores at the track, hold all tickets. Seven days after Winston’s spectacular crash and Mariota’s reinvention of the wheel, the story line that seemed so obvious — Overwhelmed Rookie vs. Anointed Rookie — developed some nuance.

Winston led the Bucs to a 26-19 upset of the Saints in New Orleans, where the home team was favored by a league-high 9.5 points. OK, “led” is a slight exaggeration. The more accurate verb might be “helped.” He threw for 207 yards and a touchdown during a solid 14 for 21 passing performance notable for zero interceptions.

Few crowds figure to be as hostile to a visiting rookie quarterback than those in the Superdome, but Winston remained composed. His only turnover was a lost fumble on a fourth-quarter sack by linebacker Hau’oli Kikaha, the former Washington Huskies standout.

As Winston was winning in New Orleans, Mariota was losing in Cleveland, where he ceded the spotlight to the Browns’ Johnny Manziel during still another showdown of ex-Heisman Trophy recipients.

Mariota’s numbers were decent — 21 of 37 for 257 yards and two touchdowns — if you disregard the seven times he was sacked. There’s a correlation between sacks and ineffective offensive lines, to be sure, but the famously elusive quarterback who resembled an indomitable veteran in the opener looked like an inexperienced kid Sunday.

In addition to the two fumbles he surrendered, Mariota also gave up a helmet and a shoe on the same play. It was a long day.

“I’ve got to do a better job with the football,” he said after the 28-14 defeat. “I need to throw the ball away, get the ball out of my hand quick enough so that we’re not taking unnecessary sacks and losing the football.”

The story line of the 2015 season may yet reveal Mariota as a franchise pillar and Winston as a coach killer, but when it comes to evaluating the long-term futures of NFL quarterbacks, snap judgments based on one game are silly.

Take Week 1 of the 1998 season, when Leaf and the Chargers beat Buffalo while Manning and the Colts lost to Miami. Their stats suggested neither was ready for prime time — Leaf’s 54.8 passer rating virtually mirrored Manning’s 58.6 — and no reasonable observer could have projected the former as an all-time failure and the latter as an all-time great.

A final thought on Winston’s inglorious initiation into the NFL last Sunday, when his first pass was intercepted and returned for touchdown: Not since 1991 had a quarterback been victimized by a pick-six after one career throw. That guy in 1991, a backup for Atlanta, attempted four other passes in a Falcons uniform, two of which also were intercepted.

The quarterback was Brett Favre. If he’s not a first-ballot selection for the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s class of 2016, an investigation will be in order.

This story was originally published September 20, 2015 at 9:44 PM with the headline "John McGrath: Avoid snap judgments about those taking the snaps."